Monday Playbook — Top 5 Setups

The day's five highest-conviction setups, ranked by technical inflection, profit-probability, and trade quality — 5 long, 0 short. Trade your plan and manage risk first. Also screened: $IBIT, $CVNA, $AAOI, $SPY, $AMZN, $SHOP.

1$METAMAG7LongMedium convictionscore 74
Inflection60
Probability78
Quality91

META trades at 648.03, extended above both the rising 50-SMA (600.90) and 200-SMA (623.23) with the 50 crossing back above the 200, marking a bullish structural inflection. Momentum is confirming, but with RSI at 67.18 the tape is approaching overbought and warrants disciplined entry.

META chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages

Price sits 3.98% above the 200-SMA and roughly 7.8% above the 50-SMA, evidence of trend strength but also stretch risk. MACD at 14.02 versus signal 4.14 shows a wide positive spread, confirming upside momentum acceleration. RSI at 67.18 is bullish yet nearing the 70 threshold, suggesting a pullback into the 623–635 shelf would offer a higher-quality long entry. The 50-SMA at 600.90 defines the deeper trend floor; loss of it would invalidate the bullish structure.

EntryPreferred accumulation zone 630–638 on a pullback; alternatively, breakout continuation entry above 652 with confirmation. Avoid chasing above 655 without a reset in RSI.
InvalidationDaily close below 615 invalidates the setup — it would break the recent higher-low structure and put price back below the 200-SMA (623.23), signaling failure of the bullish inflection.
Targets672 — measured extension from the 50/200-SMA base → 695 — trend continuation objective if momentum persists
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
2$TXRHTradedLongMedium convictionscore 74
Inflection75
Probability64
Quality86

TXRH is testing its rising 200-SMA (180.01) with price at 181.22, just 0.67% above this multi-quarter trend line. RSI at 28.58 signals oversold conditions right at a critical technical inflection, creating a potential mean-reversion setup within the working long bias.

TXRH chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages

Price has decoupled sharply from the 50-SMA at 197.68, sitting roughly 8.3% below it, which explains the oversold RSI reading of 28.58 and the negative MACD spread (-5.22 vs signal -2.83) showing momentum still leaning down. However, the 200-SMA at 180.01 is acting as the line-in-the-sand: holding it preserves the longer-term uptrend structure, while the oversold RSI increases the probability of a reflex bounce. The MACD histogram remains negative, so confirmation of a momentum turn is not yet in hand — this is an inflection zone, not a confirmed reversal.

EntryStage entries in the 180.00–182.50 zone on stabilization near the 200-SMA; add on reclaim/close above 185 to confirm the oversold bounce is engaging.
InvalidationDaily close below 177.50 invalidates the setup — it would breach the 200-SMA decisively and open risk of a trend-change leg lower.
TargetsFirst target 190.00 (gap toward the 50-SMA) → Second target 197.50 (retest of the 50-SMA at 197.68)
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
3$ASANTradedLongMedium convictionscore 73
Inflection69
Probability69
Quality86

ASAN is coiling right at its 200-day SMA (8.74) with price at 8.77, sitting just above a rising 50-SMA (8.54) — a classic long-bias inflection where the intermediate trend is being retested.

ASAN chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages

Price is only 0.29% above the 200-SMA, framing 8.74 as the pivot that separates a reclaim from a rejection. RSI at 46.4 is neutral-to-soft, and MACD (0.04) has crossed below its signal (0.25), signaling near-term momentum has faded even as the 50-SMA remains constructively below price. The tight cluster between 8.54 (50-SMA) and 8.77 (spot) creates a narrow decision zone; a hold above 8.74 keeps the working long bias intact, while loss of 8.54 would break structure.

EntryConsider engagement on a reclaim/hold of 8.74–8.80 with confirmation, or a pullback into 8.55–8.60 near the 50-SMA
InvalidationBelow 8.45 (closing basis); breaking this level voids the 50-SMA support and negates the long inflection thesis
TargetsFirst target 9.10 (recovery of prior momentum shelf) → Second target 9.45 (extension above 200-SMA cluster)
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
4$GOOGLMAG7LongMedium convictionscore 73
Inflection63
Probability69
Quality93

GOOGL is coiling just above its rising 200-SMA (336.81) at 338.50, sitting only 0.50% above long-term trend support while trading below its 50-SMA (347.18) — a classic pullback-to-trend inflection where the working long bias must be defended or invalidated.

GOOGL chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages

Price is pinned between the 200-SMA floor at 336.81 and the 50-SMA ceiling at 347.18, framing a tight ~3% decision box. RSI at 46.79 is neutral-soft, showing no oversold washout but also no momentum thrust, while MACD at -3.61 below its signal line at -3.18 confirms short-term momentum is still deteriorating. The trade-quality score of 93.3 and profit-probability of 69.0 argue the structure is high grade, but the sub-signal MACD warns that entries need to be staged rather than chased.

EntryStage longs into the 337.00-339.00 zone on a hold of the 200-SMA (336.81); add on a reclaim of the 50-SMA with a close above 347.50 confirming momentum flip.
InvalidationDaily close below 333.00 (roughly 1.1% under the 200-SMA) invalidates the trend-support thesis and signals a broader breakdown of the long setup.
Targets347.18 — reversion to the 50-SMA and top of the current compression box → 358.00 — measured continuation above the 50-SMA reclaim, ~6% above spot
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
5$QCOMSemiconductorsLongMedium convictionscore 70
Inflection45
Probability93
Quality80

QCOM is trending higher within the Semiconductors complex, printing 181.97 while riding well above a tightly clustered 50-SMA (168.60) and 200-SMA (168.10). The inflection sits in the tension between strong trend/momentum (MACD 2.56 vs signal 0.27) and an RSI of 66.29 approaching overbought, suggesting the tape is extended but not yet exhausted.

QCOM chart with 50 and 200 day moving averages

Price is 8.25% above the 200-SMA, confirming a mature uptrend, while the near-flat 50/200-SMA stack (168.60 / 168.10) marks a well-defined structural support shelf ~7-8% below spot. MACD at 2.56 versus a signal of 0.27 shows a wide, positive spread — momentum is firmly with the bulls but the histogram gap invites mean-reversion risk. RSI at 66.29 is bullish-regime but within striking distance of the 70 threshold, so chasing strength carries poor reward-to-risk. The preferred read is to let price pull back toward the rising 50-SMA rather than extend into stretched levels.

EntryPreferred accumulation zone 172.00-175.00 on a controlled pullback toward the 50-SMA (168.60); alternative momentum trigger on a daily close above 184.00 with RSI holding under 72.
InvalidationDaily close below 167.50 — this breaks both the 50-SMA (168.60) and 200-SMA (168.10) cluster, invalidating the trend structure and flipping bias to neutral/defensive.
Targets188.50 — measured extension from the current MACD impulse and prior swing resistance → 196.00 — next projected leg, roughly 16% above the 200-SMA where trend exhaustion typically emerges
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)

Ranked by technical inflection, profit-probability, and trade quality. Educational only. Not financial advice.

Monday Playbook — Top 5 Setups — Daily Playbook