Daily Recap

Trader By Instinct built the day around a memory and semi-cap thesis, calling out $SNDK's defense of the cloud top as a classic setup for an extended run — and it delivered, with SNDK ripping roughly 450 points off the 1485 print and MU adding 100+. He flagged similar cloud-top structures on $STX, $WDC, $GLW, $LITE, $AAOI, and $NBIS, arguing the recent pullback was overdone given valuations aren't dot-com stretched. Later he pointed to falling-wedge setups on LITE and AAOI as prime continuation plays, while cautioning that hot IPO/rocket names look near exhaustion and the SPCX-style rotation could see money hop into HX next.

GP spent the session frustrated by software weakness ($NOW, $PLTR, $MSFT, $ORCL) but grew increasingly constructive as $SPX pushed through the 7542 pivot he'd been watching. His read: two months of consolidation is setting up a monster pop, calls across the board are unusually cheap, and $META's reversal off a 1.4T-sized lawsuit headline signals peak fear is behind it. He's leaning long via SPY 755s, sees $DELL as the next MU/SNDK-style mover (targeting four digits by year-end), and continues to treat $TSLA as the best day-trading instrument on the planet — dominated by 0DTE flow, tough for swings.

Random Trader tracked confirmation levels closely — TSLA above 409, AAOI above 130, and highlighted BABA reclaiming its 50-day after a shakeout plus META's first close above the 100-day since April as meaningful trend tells.

Room mood: Frustrated-but-hopeful — traders venting at software and choppy fills, but perking up into the close as breadth improved and SPX broke out.

Trader By Instinct framed the session as an "alternate day rotation with expedited pullback intensity" — a pattern he's seen before, and one where he believes the playbook is clear. He leaned into the memory and semi complex, flagging MU around 950, SNDK at 1680, and SOXL at 171 as levels of interest, while noting SMH tagged the lower Bollinger Band and bounced cleanly. His broader thesis: fundamentally sound names with sub-1 PEGs and solid growth are hitting DCA territory, with SNDK's ~40% pullback from the peak looking like a gift and MRVL another BTFD candidate. He also called AAPL's relative strength "formidable" and hinted at a looming breakout, while noting quantum names may be turning a corner. Late in the day he catalogued a wave of "stopped selling" signals across GLW, AAOI, LITE, and chip/memory names, with SK Hynix's Friday debut as a potential catalyst.

GP was more skeptical of the tape, repeatedly describing the price action as sloppy, trendless, and dominated by short covering rather than real buying. He reminded the room that earnings season kicks off next Tuesday with NFLX on 7/16, and that SPY has been going nowhere inside the upper wick of last week's range within a ~2.5 month bull flag. He flagged BABA having a moment, MSFT clinging to a critical level, ARM breaking its 50-day and looking weaker than peers, and ORCL as a name playing with fire (25 sessions of downside, only 5 green). He was struck by the destruction just off the highs — INTC 142→105, SNDK 2354→1527, WDC 799→507 — while expected rotation leaders (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN) have failed to pick up the baton. His TSLA read stayed consistent: no double bottoms, just stall-and-reshort under the uptick rule, with call sellers reloading.

Random Trader kept it tactical, watching AAOI's red-to-green, TWLO holding, and calling NVDA's push above 203.7 a potential squeeze trigger — a bullish tell for the broader semi complex. Room mood: frustrated and fatigued, with members leaning on gallows humor as chop, 0DTE flows, and tape bombs made both longs and shorts painful.

Trader By Instinct framed the day around a clear rotation: risk-off in momentum and memory names, risk-on in staples, IGV software, mega caps and crypto. He walked through targets like SMH into the 580–582 zone for a short-term bounce, with a longer 430 target aligning with the rising weekly 50 SMA — potentially a 35% pullback in the making. Memory names (SNDK, MU, WDC, STX) are already 30–40% off peak, and he views them as future BTFD candidates given PEG under 1 and strong margin/growth profiles, but not yet — he prefers waiting for a retest of prior ATHs. He's testing weeklies on setups like AAOI (51% off, MACD extreme), LITE (37% off), and SMH near lower BBs, while flagging NBIS around 141 as a potential entry and IREN as an improving swing R/R. He also drew a parallel to the ASTS/RKLB action into SPCX, suggesting SK Hynix's Friday debut could keep pressure on memory this week.

GP hammered the overnight dynamic — KOSPI-driven selling after 8pm has been relentless since early June, and he half-joked that shorting 100 shares nightly before Asia closes could fund most options plays. On single names, he liked IBM as one of the cleanest charts (near HOD, calls working), called DELL the least damaged in momo land, and stayed constructive on MSFT's daily consolidation at resistance despite frustration with the sloppy tape. ORCL remained messy but he tagged along with a notable buyer, and he flagged unusually cheap put pricing across ARM and MU as an opportunity. TSLA, in his view, is a stock to fade on intraday HOD red dojis — grinding sideways with 30–40% moves only every several months. Random Trader tracked META reclaiming its 50 SMA as the strongest megacap and kept an eye on DOCN's potential APP-style breakout, while noting broadly trashy action.

Room mood: frustrated and impatient, with traders leaning into shorts on AI/memory names while grinding for scraps in software and mega caps.

GP spent the session fixated on what he called sloppy, aggressive selling in ORCL — arguing the tape looked like reckless shorting into a name sitting near multi-month lows, the kind of setup that historically produces sharp cover bars. He flagged IBM taking out last week's highs early as one of the day's cleanest breakouts, liked RDDT pressing toward new highs, and kept a close eye on TSLA attempting to engulf Thursday's post-delivery selloff, noting the 414.50 pivot as the key level for a squeeze. His broader gripe: the 3x/0DTE crowd kept fading every push in SPX, META and TSLA, turning what should be clean moves into grinding chop.

Trader By Instinct laid out the crypto map — BTC trying to reclaim and hold its weekly 200 SMA (he's been swinging a small position and willing to add), ETH targeting 2472 once it settles into his marked zone, and SOL building for a 100–110 move. He said MSTR turns into a real trade above 105, called out HIMS, CRWD, HOOD and PLTR as leaders showing renewed momentum, and framed ORCL as reminiscent of the AMD setup near 70 given how far it sits from its peak. On the short side, he took small, far-OTM weekly puts on memory names like SNDK, noting bounces there keep getting sold and premiums are elevated. His thematic read: crypto, mega-caps and software look like July's strength pockets, while memory, recent IPOs and space names are getting hit.

Random Trader kept it brief, flagging software strength ex-MSFT early and pointing out GOOGL standing out later in the day. Room mood: frustrated with the intraday grind but leaning bullish into tomorrow, with hope pinned on a crypto follow-through and a TSLA gap-and-go.

With markets closed for the holiday, Trader By Instinct kept the focus on macro setups and community. He flagged Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-week SMA as a meaningful technical event, framing it as overdue and setting the stage for what he expects to be a constructive six-week stretch ahead. He also floated the idea of a limit-up move to kick off the next session, keeping the tone forward-looking.

On the community side, TBI pointed members to the trade analysis dashboard on the website, emphasizing full transparency into his, GP's, and Random Trader's trades — complete with stats to help members follow along more intelligently. He nudged anyone who hasn't logged in yet to do so, calling it a real edge that's being left on the table.

GP and Random Trader joined TBI in wishing a well-known member a happy birthday, keeping the holiday mood warm. Room mood: festive and relaxed, with members trading birthday wishes and a few side glances at BTC and NQ reclaiming key levels.

Trader By Instinct spent the session cataloguing technical damage across semis: $ORCL breaking the weekly 200 SMA with 135 as the next stop, $AVGO cracking its 200 SMA, $NVDA approaching the same level and slipping below the daily cloud, $MU and $SNDK looking like real breaks (he flagged 850 and 1600 as potential targets), and $STX losing its 50 SMA. He was watching 579 on $SMH as a spot to try a tight-stop $SOXL long, but noted the daily cloud suggests 550 could be the real line in the sand. With weekly charts printing lower lows, he said he's not adding swings and wants to see what Monday brings — while asking the room, pointedly, if anyone was actually stepping up to buy the chip dip. Answer: no one.

GP was more visceral about the tape, calling the Tesla reaction to solid delivery numbers absurd and pinning it on relentless call-selling and a mechanical sell algo grinding indices straight down with no bounces. He kept flagging the strange divergences — $RKLB, $IBM, $CRM, $NFLX, crypto and metals holding green while $NQ got hammered — and said he refuses to trade until these 700–900 point morning reversals stop. His forward focus: stepping away from Q2 momentum names until they show a backbone, and leaning into software and crypto for Q3. He also flagged unusually depressed $TSLA premiums as a tell that sellers want to buy back cheap.

Random Trader kept it light between the carnage, noting $TSLA holding its 50 SMA, $COIN and $GLW showing relative strength, and poking fun at Cramer's post-$META victory lap. Room mood: exhausted and irritated — a holiday tape with no bid, and everyone just ready for the long weekend.

GP ran point on the intraday tape, celebrating a monster META move and repeatedly begging price to tag his 643 target after grabbing 580/590 calls. His bigger thesis: it's the mags/software/crypto quarter, and "the entire month of June in software is gonna get reclaimed in the next 2 weeks" — hence his $NOW 130s, $MSFT lean toward 420, and July 200 crypto calls that "look cheap." He also flagged the persistent call-selling in $TSLA ("they are trying so fucking hard... they are going to get run over") and pinged the room on $TOST's odd 34M-share 4pm print with zero options flow.

Trader By Instinct framed the day as pure rotation: "nothing is dead or alive, it's rotation in and out of momentum names to staples every other day." He called the $MSFT weekly 200-SMA reclaim ("game on"), $IGV gunning for the 50-week, and $AVAV reclaiming the 200-week with authority. He's leaning into $CRCL through August ("fair value is 110... it will fix itself"), sees $HIMS pivots at 43 then 50, wants $PLTR 150 this week, mapped $MU fib pivots at 672/783/895/1033, and flagged $LUNR near the 50-SMA and $RKLB 106 as a short-squeeze trigger. Also noted $IWM 302 — a level the room has talked about since 2021.

Random Trader kept it dry and funny, poking at $MSFT ("can they also announce they're going into the cloud biz? oh wait"), noting $CRWV "taking META's announcement to heart," eyeing $COIN, and asking about the $TTD 19.3 add plan. Mood: giddy and greedy — a birthday-month victory lap tempered by GP's warning that one more trading day remains, so "secure all profits or take it up the butt."

GP spent the day stalking a TSLA breakout, flagging an inverse head-and-shoulders on ES, big call flow (someone scooping 2,500 of the 427.5 Friday calls at HOD, 9k of the 7/8 450s, plus heavy MSFT Aug 400 flow at ~$12), and admitted he went "a little ham" on TSLA 440 calls for tomorrow — risky, but month/quarter-end can produce ridiculous moves. He also liked DELL reclaiming its earnings candle, MSFT/NVDA/AAPL/META buying into the close, and was begging RKLB for 115 as call buyers stacked there. His read: "this is buying ultimately, not trading — change of character."

Trader By Instinct ran the technical map: ORCL pinned at the 200 SMA weekly, MSFT trying to reclaim it, OKTA "about to go gangster," and tomorrow "feels like the IGV day." He's eyeing NBIS to 350 on a 300 break, AMD 620 this/next week, ALAB 530 next, and called SPCX the new leader/"rocket fuel" to ASTS and RKLB (106 trigger for 150). He flagged AVAV as a swing once it reclaims the 200 SMA weekly, CBRS as still "ground floor," HIMS as a matter of time, and mused about loading ETH for a 50% pop next month.

Random Trader kept it tactical — noting RBLX and MSFT at resistance, mapping a path through 152-153 → 168-170 → 181 → 192, joking the tape's so bullish "even COIN might hit 150," and watching GLW's wild up-40/down-30 chop. He liked the MSFT quarterly green candle into the close.

Room mood: impatient but optimistic — lots of "just go already" energy, shorts getting singed in space names, and traders eyeing fireworks into July 1.

GP framed the day around the megacap thesis, arguing MSFT, software, and even BTC are doing what SPY/QQQ did over the last 12-15 months — retesting massive bases. He wants to see MSFT reclaim the 460 pivot from early June by end of July, which would imply an ATH by end of Q3; if the bounce isn't 'one for the ages,' he said he'll be wondering why. Meanwhile he was openly annoyed by quarter-end tape — 'random 150 point bars,' 500-point straight-down NQ moves, 'same place, same result' — but TSLA finally delivered, with GP flagging it as the first 9% up day since 2024 and a 'change of character,' eyeing the 414.5 / 418.27 200SMA reclaim. He also liked ASTS into the 50sma, RKLB off the 150sma, DOCN holding, and tagged DELL as potentially 'looking like SNDK when it's all said and done.'

Trader By Instinct leaned into adding exposure: dipping ORCL at the 200SMA weekly (~145.75) for a snapback, calling ETH 1500 'one for the books' if held with patience, and scaling out of TSLA July 450Cs in four tranches while adding an Aug position (eyeing 500/550Cs) since '50SMA daily and weekly are rarely this aligned.' He pounded the table on CBRS (211 → 213 → 246 path, which played beautifully into 217-219), SPCX gearing toward 175/200, and called AVGO + NVDA 'cheap.' On memory he noted the rotation — SNDK -100, STX +66 — and on BTC warned that without a catalyst it's a slow trickle toward 50K. MSFT and META got the cuck treatment until they prove otherwise.

Random Trader, in and out between calls, liked CBRS, RBLX ('finally?'), AAOI ('going to burn some shorts here'), and admitted he lost faith on AVEX after two frustrating weeks.

Room mood: upbeat and a little giddy — TSLA ripping, CBRS paying, members chasing megas and cracking jokes while a few lament early trims.

Trader By Instinct and GP spent the night dissecting what they're calling a systematic, KOSPI/Japan-driven flush that's wiping out megacaps — TBI flagged NVDA -17% from May highs, BTC back to Sept '24 levels, and roughly $4T in megacap wealth destroyed (MSFT, META, TSLA, AAPL, GOOGL, NVDA all 'criminal' chart damage). GP's read: this is quarter-end systematic selling, and once it ends, 'noone is ready for another 15% higher from here.' Both mods aligned on a 'June swoon → July moon' thesis, eyeing August opex as the window, with TBI noting unusual block flow — 5,507 MAGS Dec 65 calls and 10k Jan 575 calls — as smart money positioning.

On the watch-list, TBI built out an IGV rotation: MSFT (weekly hammer off lower BB + oversold daily RSI, targeting 450), META holding key level, ORCL maybe one more 200SMA tag, OKTA the cleanest setup (didn't pull back), plus SNOW, CRM, NOW as mean-revert candidates. GP pushed back on PLTR but loved FTNT (ATH today) and PANW as 'best of breed.' Space names back in focus — TBI eyeing ASTS double bottom and RKLB > 88 as the trigger; GP noted RKLB's repeating 50% retrace + 200SMA pattern. Both want to swing names early next week and be out before earnings.

GP also flagged the macro tailwind nobody's discussing: dollar topping, 10-yr getting smacked, oil back where it belongs — 'the recipe is there.' TBI added TLT as a longer-term arc and teased the site's new DCA portfolio kicking in on Extreme Fear. Friday delivered the bingo — MSFT beast mode, IBM 270 ITM, MU lottos hitting — though GP grumbled the NQ pair trade kept indices red. Room mood: exhausted but cautiously giddy — FOMO creeping in during extreme fear, which TBI called 'actually pretty healthy.'

GP spent the day fighting the tape, convinced systematic/CTA selling was behind the relentless pressure: "every quarter everything just resets," he vented, flagging that losing SPX 7322 would be the LOD trigger and that a break of 29923 on NQ "gets really interesting." He kept pointing to AAPL and MSFT printing constant lows-of-day, but also noted relative strength building in chips/memory (AMD, INTC, ARM, MU) and gold holding the 4046 pivot — a setup he thinks could "rip" if the mechanical selling stops. By late session he was eyeing MSFT LEAPs as "easy money" and floated that tomorrow could be huge if today is the dump day.

Trader By Instinct did the heavier technical work, calling out MSFT closing below the 200 weekly SMA with a follow-through red candle toward 349, META testing 531 with 466.66 (the 200 weekly) as downside, and ORCL down 61% from peak. On the long side he wouldn't let go of memory: MU "has 1400 written all over it," SNDK needs 2340 to clear for a fast 3K, plus GLW NATH, LITE never red, and NBIS 350 target (later reversed). He's skeptical on metals/silver ("part of this looks like stage 4"), sees BTC heading to 49.5-50K worst case, and is prepping lottos for a "battleground day tomorrow" — either outsized reversal or smackdown continuation.

Random Trader kept it tactical and wry — CAVA reclaiming the 50SMA was a "beauty," TXRH showed impressive relative strength, AAOI he's watching 130-132 to hold, and MSFT 340 as the next line. His best line captured the tape: "by the end of the day we would have rotated out of big caps, back into big caps and then out again."

Room mood: exhausted and punch-drunk — gallows humor, "death and destruction," but clinging to hope for a Friday snapback.

Trader By Instinct spent the morning running a full valuation sweep on the AI/chip complex and came away with a clear two-bucket framework: cheap with accelerating fundamentals vs fully priced, run-is-done. In the cheap pile he flagged $NVDA (PEG 0.35, fwd P/E 16 — "a third of Walmart"), $DELL (PEG 0.54), $MU (PEG 0.06, sales q/q +196%), $SNDK (fwd P/E 10, EPS q/q +272%), $STX, $WDC and $LITE (EPS q/q +332%). In the avoid pile: $ARM (PEG 3.95, fwd P/E 121), $ALAB (68x revenues), and now $INTC after the BofA PT bump to 160 — "INTC might be done like ARM and ALAB." He's especially loud on $IBM: sales growing 3x historical, EPS YoY +94%, JPM PT 291, and he sees a path to 500–600 on this run. He also called out 200-week SMA tests on $BABA, $FUTU, and $KWEB's 22–24 bounce zone as China longs worth considering.

GP agreed with the value lens — "DELL is the best opportunity… could be setting up a SNDK-type move" and "GFS is better than INTC" — but spent most of the session venting at the price action. His main thesis: the entire US tape is being puppeted by the KOSPI/EWY and SK Hynix headlines, and it makes no sense. "MSFT went from 460 on June 1 to 367 — a $3T company down 20.5% in three weeks." He flagged a persistent, well-funded seller pinning NQ at 29830, suspicious premium decay on SPX calls ("seller > flow… if flow joins the seller = death"), and called out a deep-ITM MU call print (8k vs 412 OI) into earnings. Still, he thinks a reclaim of SPX 7450 opens a gamma squeeze, and likes $GLW's consolidate-and-go setup. Random Trader worked the off-index angle, pushing restaurants ($DRI ER, $TXRH coiled at ATH) and an $AAOI right-shoulder reclaim of 132.6 back toward 200, noting he wants less index-dependent plays for summer. TBI closed by flagging CNN Fear & Greed approaching extreme fear, crypto trashed, and gold a possible double-bottom near 135–140.

Room mood: frustrated and bruised — gallows humor, controlled-demolition jokes, and traders begging for one clean god-candle.

Tuesday's chatter leaned firmly bullish, with traders across all three rooms loading up on short-dated calls into the back half of the week. Trader By Instinct kicked things off with an MU earnings play alongside calls on $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, and $SPCX, while GP worked an active book spanning $SPX, $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA, $MSFT, $RKLB, and $IBM — booking partials at 5.1 and full exits at 3.55 and 1.18 before rolling into fresh setups. Random Trader kept size light with small/tiny starters in $DOCN, $MSFT, and $NOW.

The overall mood was upbeat and opportunistic — lots of fresh entries, quick scales, and a willingness to roll strikes higher into strength. Mega-cap tech and index calls dominated the tape.

It was a grindy session across the rooms with traders working both sides of the tape. In GP, the focus was on index lottos and mega-cap calls — SPX, SPY, META, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, RKLB and IBM all got plays. Some scaled out for wins (MSFT 400Cs sold partials at 3.3 and out at 3.01, META trims at 4.2), while several others were stopped out or exited red on SPY, TSLA and SPX puts. The mood read as patient but frustrated at the chop — one note literally said "(sigh)" on a trim.

Over in Random Trader, the vibe leaned into starters and lottos: SMCI calls (chasing), a restaurant ER basket via TXRH and DRI, COIN starters (despite admitting fatigue on the name), CAVA reclaiming its 50sma, plus AAOI superlottos eyeing new highs. TSLA 417.5Cs were added as small same-day lotto plays.

Traders worked a busy tape today with plenty of fast scalps and a few standout multi-bag runners. Trader By Instinct locked in big closes on $MU June 1100 calls (from 7.7 to 22.2) and trimmed $HIMS June 33 calls in pieces from 0.2 up to 1.7, while adding $MU 1200 and $MRVL 350 lotto tickets. GP played both sides of $SPX with 7525 calls (out in pieces up to 3.97) and 7480 puts, and rotated through $TSLA, $MSFT, $META, $INTC, and $RLB names with mixed results — some clean scalps, a few stops.

Random Trader had a standout session with $BROS 70c (0.2 → 1.32), $RBLX 50c (0.32 → 2.26), $GLW 192.5c (0.54 → 2.4), and $SN 140c (0.45 → 1.43), while throwing on superlottos in $AVGO, $FSLR, $CRWV, and $AAOI. A $TSLA put hedge worked briefly before bouncing, and a $META put hedge stopped out. Overall mood: opportunistic and active, with lottos flying into Friday.