Price at 46.26 is only 2.23% above the 200-SMA, meaning the long-term trend line is still in play as the pivot of record. The 50-SMA sitting just 0.85 points above the 200-SMA hints at a nascent golden-cross alignment, and MACD's expansion above signal confirms buyers regaining short-term control. RSI at 59.28 is constructive but not stretched, supporting continuation if 46.10 holds on any pullback. The tight clustering of price and both SMAs, however, means the setup remains binary — a decisive break either way likely dictates the next multi-week leg.
Sunday Playbook — Top 5 Setups
The day's five highest-conviction setups, ranked by technical inflection, profit-probability, and trade quality — 5 long, 0 short. Trade your plan and manage risk first. Also screened: $RKLB, $NOW, $AVGO, $CVNA, $ALGN, $SPY.
Inflection61
Probability98
Quality80
IONQ is coiled at an inflection just above both its 50-SMA (46.10) and 200-SMA (45.25), with a MACD cross into positive territory (0.36 vs -1.24) signaling momentum has shifted while RSI at 59.3 leaves room before overbought conditions.
EntryPreferred entry on a hold/reclaim of the 46.10 (50-SMA) shelf, ideally 46.00-46.30; alternatively, momentum add on a confirmed close above 47.00.
InvalidationInvalidation on a daily close below 45.25 (200-SMA); losing that level would negate the MACD cross thesis and flip the trend structure back to neutral-bearish.
TargetsFirst target 48.75 (recent supply / prior swing area) → Second target 51.00 (measured extension above the SMA cluster)
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
Inflection58
Probability98
Quality83
CAVA is grinding higher above both key moving averages, with price at 74.42 stacked over the 50-SMA (72.62) and 200-SMA (70.82) in a bullish alignment. The inflection: MACD at -0.72 has crossed decisively above its signal at -2.30, suggesting momentum is turning up from a reset while RSI at 61.69 confirms strength without being overbought.
Trend structure is constructive — price sits 5.08% above the 200-SMA and roughly 2.5% above the 50-SMA, making the rising 50-SMA (72.62) the first line of defense and the 200-SMA (70.82) the deeper trend pivot. RSI at 61.69 leaves headroom before the 70 overbought threshold, and the MACD gap of ~1.58 above signal points to improving momentum breadth. However, MACD remains sub-zero in absolute terms, so the recovery is early-stage rather than confirmed. Any close back below 72.62 would neutralize the near-term bullish read.
EntryPreferred accumulation zone 72.80–73.50 on a pullback toward the 50-SMA; alternatively, trigger on strength above 75.00 with MACD holding positive versus signal.
InvalidationDaily close below 70.80 (the 200-SMA); breaking that level would invalidate the trend structure and flip the working bias to neutral/defensive.
TargetsFirst target 78.00 — measured continuation and prior supply retest → Second target 82.50 — extension objective if MACD crosses above zero and RSI holds >60
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
Inflection70
Probability83
Quality81
RDDT is coiled right at its 200-day SMA (177.86) with price at 178.09, having reclaimed the 50-day (175.02) — a classic inflection where a long base meets the long-term trend line.
Price sits just 0.13% above the 200-SMA and roughly 1.8% above the rising 50-SMA, signaling a constructive short-term structure attempting to flip the long-term trend. RSI at 55.3 is above midline but not overbought, leaving room for continuation, while MACD at -4.68 vs signal -5.44 shows a bullish crossover forming from below zero — momentum inflecting up. The tight cluster of price, 50-SMA and 200-SMA compresses volatility and typically resolves with an expansion move; direction is not yet confirmed until 200-SMA holds on a closing basis.
EntryPrefer entries on a hold of 177.86 (200-SMA), ideally a pullback into the 176.00–177.00 zone; alternatively, a breakout trigger on a close above 180.50 to confirm trend acceptance.
InvalidationClosing break below 174.50 (under the 50-SMA) invalidates the setup — it would signal the 200-SMA rejected price and the MACD cross was a false start.
TargetsFirst target 185.50, prior swing supply and a ~4% extension from entry → Second target 192.00, measured move from the SMA compression base
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
Inflection67
Probability83
Quality86
ASAN is reclaiming its 200-day SMA (9.09) with price at 9.14, testing a longer-term trend inflection while the 50-day (7.71) rises beneath, framing a classic base-to-breakout setup.
Price sits just 0.56% above the 200-SMA, meaning this pivot is unresolved and requires confirmation. RSI at 59.07 is constructively trending but not yet overbought, leaving room to extend, while MACD at 0.53 above its signal 0.44 confirms positive momentum. The 50-SMA at 7.71 is well below price, indicating a healthy intermediate uptrend, but the tight proximity to the 200-SMA is the true decision line.
EntryConsider engagement on a confirmed hold above 9.09-9.20, or on a controlled pullback toward the 8.70-8.90 zone where prior structure and momentum should reassert.
InvalidationA decisive close below 8.40 would invalidate the reclaim of the 200-SMA, signaling failed breakout and reversion back toward the rising 50-SMA near 7.71.
Targets9.85-10.00 as initial measured extension from the base → 10.75-11.10 on continuation as trend follow-through
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
Inflection65
Probability83
Quality81
COST is coiling just above both its 50-SMA (950.58) and 200-SMA (958.50) at 961.10, with a bullish MACD crossover (1.91 vs 0.01 signal) marking a potential inflection back to trend. With price only 0.27% above the 200-day, the stock is threading a decision point between reclaim and rejection.
Price sits above both key moving averages, and the 50-SMA has curled up toward the 200-SMA — a constructive alignment even if not yet a golden cross. RSI at 55.49 is bullishly biased but far from overbought, leaving room to extend, while the widening MACD spread above signal confirms momentum has shifted positive. The tight 0.27% distance to the 200-SMA means this reclaim is still fragile and needs to hold to validate the long bias.
EntryPrefer entries on a pullback into the 955–958 zone (retest of 200-SMA) or on a confirmed breakout close above 965.
InvalidationBelow 948 (under the 50-SMA at 950.58); a break there negates the reclaim and reopens downside toward the prior base.
Targets975–980 as the first measured objective above the current inflection → 995–1005 on continuation as momentum extends
TimeframeSwing (2-6 weeks)
Ranked by technical inflection, profit-probability, and trade quality. Educational only. Not financial advice.