Monday Playbook — Top 5 Setups

The day's five highest-conviction setups, ranked by technical inflection, profit-probability, and trade quality — 5 long, 0 short. Trade your plan and manage risk first. Also screened: $SPY, $PG, $COHR, $CAT, $UNH, $PFE.

5 of 5 plays

IWM is pressing against its 200-SMA (277.19) with price at 277.90, a textbook inflection where a reclaim versus a loss of this long-term trendline defines the next swing. The setup aligns with a Traded long bias as oversold conditions meet a potential MACD turn.

Price sits just 0.26% above the 200-SMA (277.19) while trading 4.5% below the 50-SMA (291.12), confirming a short-term pullback inside a longer uptrend structure. RSI at 36.84 is near oversold without breaching it, leaving room for a mean-reversion bounce. MACD at -3.43 has crossed above its signal at -3.56, a nascent bullish momentum shift that still needs confirmation. The 200-SMA is acting as the pivotal battleground; holding it keeps the long thesis intact.

IWM daily chart
EntryStagger entries on a hold of the 200-SMA: initial tranche 277.00-278.50, add on reclaim and close above 280.00 confirming the bounce.
Targets285.00 (gap toward the 50-SMA zone) → 291.00 (50-SMA confluence at 291.12)
StopDaily close below 274.50 (roughly 1% under the 200-SMA) invalidates the reclaim thesis and signals a structural break of the long-term trend.

Educational only. Not financial advice.

Monday Playbook — Top 5 Setups — Daily Playbook