ETH Daily Playbook
Ethereum is caught in a split-tape regime: price at 2,251.38 sits above the rising 200-SMA (2,158.11) by just 4.32% but well below the 50-SMA at 2,520.51, confirming a short-term downtrend inside a longer-term base. Momentum backs the sellers — RSI at 31.86 is pressing oversold, and MACD at -71.00 remains below its -59.29 signal with the histogram still widening, so there's no bullish cross yet. Immediate support is the 200-SMA zone around 2,158; losing it cleanly would flip the broader structure and open air beneath. Resistance stacks at the 50-SMA near 2,520, with intermediate friction likely on any mean-reversion bounce as RSI unwinds from oversold.
The setup worth tracking is a reclaim attempt: a MACD bullish cross combined with RSI pushing back above 40 while price holds the 200-SMA would argue for a tactical long toward the 50-SMA. The bearish alternative — a daily close below ~2,158 with MACD continuing to expand lower — invalidates the base-building thesis and shifts focus to deeper support. Stand down on the long idea if 2,158 fails on a closing basis; stand down on the short-squeeze idea if price can't reclaim the mid-2,300s to begin repairing momentum.