BTC Daily Playbook
Price at 77,382 is pinned between a rising 200-SMA (73,131) acting as the structural bull line and a declining 50-SMA (81,895) now capping rallies — a classic loss-of-momentum tape where the short-term trend has rolled over while the long-term trend remains intact. RSI at 35.27 shows sellers in control but approaching oversold, and MACD at -1,078 beneath its -554 signal confirms downside momentum is still expanding, not yet curling. Immediate resistance sits at the 50-SMA near 81,900, with the prior reaction zone around 80,000 as the first hurdle; support stacks at the 200-SMA (73,131), roughly 5.81% below spot, which is the line that defines whether this remains a pullback or becomes a trend change. The setup of interest is a mean-reversion attempt toward the 50-SMA — triggered only on a reclaim of 80,000 with MACD histogram narrowing and RSI pushing back above 45 — otherwise, continued drift favors a retest of the 200-SMA. The constructive thesis is invalidated on a daily close beneath 73,131, which would flip the long-term slope risk and open air below the recent range.