TSLA - Riding the momentum cycle
Many of you may have witnessed the 2019-2020 momentum cycle, where the stock rocketed from 37 odd to 200 in almost a straight line in what was a strong momentum cycle. In March 2020, during the the height of the pandemic, the stock pulled back sharply from 200 to around 72, and bounced from the 50 EMA weekly. That 50 EMA weekly bounce catapulted the stock from 70 odd to 900 over a 10 month period in price action that we had probably not witnessed in the past two decades. I doubt there'd be anyone that'd disagree with that statement. After that unprecedented run, the stock pulled back sharply several times operating in a 350 point range since March 2020, pulling back to the mid-500s twice, once in late Feb/early March and then a repeat selling that occurred in May, which took it back to that mid 500 level to retest the March lows. After tagging the 50 EMA weekly in May 2021, it operated in a tight range for a good three months before showing relative strength in a weak tape in September 2021 right before the ER. That was the onset of what we are now witnessing as a strong momentum cycle, which has left everyone guessing the top. Yes, all over again and yes, it's a bounce from that 50 EMA weekly level again that should remind you of the bounce from March 2020 to Jan 2021. We've seen in the past how guessing top on a path-breaking name such as TSLA has spanned out. The current move is a double top breakout past that 901 level what is now an approximately 34% move at the closing price of 1208 on November 1st, 2021. The RSI on the weekly is flashing overbought at 86, a touch lower to the 94 that it tagged at the peak of the November 2019-Feb 2020 cycle high.
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